• Easy Come, Easy Go: US Fourth Quarter Growth Surprise Fades
• Has the Wave of US Corporate Profits Crested?
• The Old Lady Is Full of Surprises
• The Bank of Japan’s Failure to Act Disappoints Investors
• The Mexican Tortilla Crisis?

• Overview
• The US Is No Longer the Sole Engine
  of Global Economic Growth
• ECB Remains Hawkish Despite Fall in Inflation
• Land Prices Rise in the Land of the Rising Sun
• The Allocation of China’s FX Reserves Could Impact Global Financial Markets

December 2006

• Overview
• Fed May Be Breathing a Little Easier
• Shrinking Margins May Prevent US Retailers From Hiring
• ECB Remains Hawkish Despite Fall in Inflation
• The Bank of Japan May Be Sidelined Until Early 2007
• The Brazilian Presidential Election

October 2006

• Overview
• Fed Stays on Hold As Housing Market Softens
• European Interest Rates Move Higher
• New Japanese Prime Minister Faces Challenges
• Hungary Exposes Weaknesses in Eastern Europe

August 2006

• Overview
• US Economic Growth Disappoints
• The Federal Reserve Sounding More Dovish
• Interest Rates Poised to Move Higher in Europe
• Bank of Japan Returns to the Game
• Applying the Brakes in China

July 2006

• Overview
• Predicting When the Federal Reserve Will Pause
• Rising US Rents Push Up Core Inflation
• Hank the Hammer Joins Bush Cabinet
• The European Central Bank Remains Vigilant
• Financial Scandal Embroils Bank of Japan Governor

June 2006

• Overview
• Fed Rate Hike Score Card: Doves vs Hawks
• Will Commodity Prices Fall Back to Earth?
• Central Banks in Europe Are Sounding More Hawkish
• Will a Strengthening Yen Delay Interest Rate Hikes?

April 2006

• Overview
• March Fed Meeting Features Rookie Line-Up
• Bernanke Says US Housing Market Poses Key Risk
• European Central Bankers Remain Hawkish
• The Land of the Rising Sun Finally On the Rise Again

February 2006

• Overview
• New Fed Chairman May Push For Another Rate Hike
• U.S. Growth Numbers may Exaggerate Weakness
• Pension Funding Rules Push Down U.K. Long Rates
• The ECB Is Poised for More Rate Hikes

January 2006

• Overview
• Fed Nearing the End of its Tightening Cycle
• U.S. Employment Numbers Disappoint
• Bank Of England Leaves Reates Unchanged
• The European Economy Appears To Be On the Mend

December 2005

• Overview
• The Fed May Be Changing Its Tune
• Bank of England Remains Concerned About Inflation
• The European Central Bank Raises Rates

November 2005

• Overview
• Bernanke Named New Fed Chairman
• Is Bernanke a Hawk or a Dove?
• How Strong Is the U.S. Economy?
• The British Economy Appears to Be Stabilizing
• Calls for a Rate Hike in Europe May Be Premature

October 2005

• Overview
• Katrina Rebuilding Costs May Force Further Rate Hikes
• U.S. Households Rein in Spending Ahead of Katrina
• Bank of England Back on Hold
• Political Stalemate in Germany May Undermine Reform
• Koizumi Receives Mandate to Enact Reform

September 2005

• Overview
• Hurricane Katrina Takes a Toll
• The U.S. Consumer Faces Significant Headwinds
• Further Bank of England Rate Cuts Less Likely
• The Chancellor’s Race Tightens in Germany
• Japanese Economy Improving Amidst Political Turmoil

August 2005

• Overview
• U.S. Economic Growth Slowing, But Still Respectable
• Greenspan Says Further Rate Hikes Are Necessary
• Chinese Revaluation More Political Than Economic
• Momentum for a Rate Cut is Building in the U.K.
• ECB President Quashes Speculation of a Rate Cut

July 2005

• Overview
• Is There a Housing Bubble in the United States?
• Bank of England Starts to Focus on Growth
• Europe Weakened By “No” Vote
• Japanese Economy Is Not Out of the Woods Yet

June 2005

• Overview
• Is the Fed Approaching Neutral?
• Have Oil Prices Passed Their Peak?
• Bank of England a Little Less Divided
• Does One Size Fit All in Europe?

April 2005

• Overview
• The Bottom Line on the Federal Reserve
• Can the U.S. Dollar Rally Be Sustained?
• Bank of England Divided Over Policy
• Europe Increases Flexibility of Stability Pact

February 2005

• Overview
• The U.S. Economy Grew At Its Fastest Pace in Five Years in 2004
• Does the Consensus Finally Have It Right?
• Bank of England Is Not Alarmed by Softer Retail Sales
• Returning European Confidence Could Boost Spending
• Emerging Markets Credit Ratings on an Upward Trend

January 2005

• Overview
• Interpreting the FOMC Minutes: Hawks Vs. Doves
• Employment Growth Remains Unimpressive
• Fragile European Confidence Gets a Lift
• The U.K. Economy Is Slowing, But Remains Healthy
• The Tsunami Effect

December 2004

• Overview
• The Low U.S. Savings Rate May Be Exaggerated
• Is Inflation Creeping Back Up in the United States?
• European Central Bank Revises Down Forecast for 2005
• Mixed Signals on the British Economy
• Election Turmoil in Ukraine

November 2004

• Overview
• The U.S. Dollar Loses Its Footing
• The U.S. Economy Is Slowing, But Is Still On Track
• Bank of England Remains on the Sidelines
• European Central Bank Concerned About Strengthening
• Chinese Start Taking Market-Oriented Approach

October 2004

• Overview
• Has Global Economic Growth Passed Its Peak?
• U.S. Businesses Still Cautious About Hiring
• Softer Data May Keep Bank of England on Hold
• Is the European Economy Slowing?
• Will the Chinese Economy Land?
• Higher Oil Prices Have Actually Boosted Growth in Some Countries

September 2004

• Overview
• U.S. Households Need to Bring Spending in Line With Income
• Too Soon to Call Reversal of Inflation Trend in U.S.
• European Central Bank Expresses More Hawkish Tone
• Bank of England May Be Nearing the End of Its Tightening Cycle
• Japan Disappoints…Again
• Russia May Prepay Paris Club Debt

August 2004

• Overview
• Blame Oil Prices?
• Consumers Suffer Setback, But the U.S. Recovery Is Still on Track
• Fed Hikes Rates Despite Softer Economic Data
• The U.K. Economy Is Healthy, But There Are Risks
• Is Europe Finally Changing?
• The Japanese Recovery Broadens

July 2004

• The Global Economy Is Strong Enough to Withstand Higher Interest Rates
• Markets Greet Fed Rate Hike with a Big Yawn
• U.S. Inflation Is Still Under Wraps
• The Bank of England Warns New Home Buyers To Proceed with Caution
• The European Outlook Does Not Warrant Higher Interest Rates

June 2004

• Overview
• Why Are Oil Prices So High? Implications for the Global Outlook
• The Federal Reserve Is Poised to Raise Interest Rates
• The U.S. Consumer Continues to Confound the Skeptics

May 2004

• Overview
• Is Inflation Back? The Numbers Behind the Headlines
• The Impact of Higher Commodity Prices is Muted
• Fed Takes Another Step Toward Raising Rates
• Europe and Japan Will Not Follow Fed’s Lead

April 2004

• Overview
• Economic Landscape
• Are Businesses Confident Enough to Hire?
• Impact of Energy Costs on U.S. Economy
• Eastern Europe in the EU

March 2004

• Overview
• Economic Landscape
• Inflation Outlook
• The Employment Picture
• The Dollar Story

February 2004

• Overview
• Economic Landscape
• Inflation and Unemployment
• Rising Foreign Participation in the U.S. Treasury Market
• Revenue Growth Boosted by the Weaker U.S. Dollar

January 2004

• Overview
• Economic Landscape
• Potential Implications of a Falling Dollar
• Global Market Outlook
• Emerging Market Economies
• Equity Outlook

December 2003

• Outlook
• Economic Landscape
• Potential GDP and the Output Gap
• Commodity Prices and Inflation
• Are Consumers Confident Enough to Spend?

November 2003

• Outlook
• Economic Landscape
• A Jobless Recovery?
• Growing Business Confidence
• Interest Rates and the Deficit

October 2003

• Outlook
• Economic Landscape
• Would Floating the Yuan and Yen Stimulate the U.S. Economy?
• Deficits­How Big?
• Equity Outlook

August 2003

• Outlook
• Economic Landscape
• 10-Year Yields Rise Sharply
• Refinance Applications Show Sharp Decline: Will Consumer Spending Follow?
• Treasury Borrowing to Finance the Deficit

July 2003

• Economic Landscape
• Weak Employment Hampers Global Recovery
• Sluggish First Half GDP Growth…Second Half Rebound?
• Economic Bright Spot: Mortgage Rates and New Home Sales

June 2003

• Outlook
  
• Economic Landscape
  
• The State of American States
  
• Deflation: Why Doesn’t It Feel That Way?
  
• The Dollar Weakens

May 2003

• Economic Landscape
  
• Gross Domestic Product Outlook Softens
  
• Impact of Earnings Surprises
  
• Slow and Steady Wins the Race
  

April 2003

• Unemployment Blues
• Equity Market & the War
• Manufacturing & Capacity Utilization
• The Good, The Bad & The Fed

March 2003

• The U.S. Economy: The Good, The Bad & The Fed
  
• Waning Confidence
  
• Inflation Update
  
• U.S. / U.K. Housing Story

February 2003

• The Good, the Bad & the Fed
  
• U.S. Consumer Debt
  
• Euro/Yen Strength
  
• Equities: The January Effect Derailed

January 2003

• The Good, the Bad & the Fed
  
• Prospects for Retail Sales
  
• Sorting Out the Manufacturing Surveys
  
• Global & Emerging Markets 2003

December 2002

• The Good, the Bad & the Fed
  
• Consumer Spending and GDP
  
• Payden & Rygel Outlook for 2003
  
• Lula’s Challenge

November 2002

• The Good, The Bad and The Fed
• Fed Funds Futures Commentary
• Has the Stock Market Turned Around?
• EMU Growth & Stability “Out of Balance”

October 2002

• The Good, the Bad & the Fed
  
• Does Iraqi Oil Matter?
  
• High Yield Outlook
  
• Monetary Policy – Global Roundup

September 2002

• Whither U.S. Interest Rates?
• Monetizing Home Value
• Municipal Bonds – Rational Ratio
• Growth in Europe Languishes

August 2002

• Consumer Confidence, Savings & Spending
  
• "FedSpeak"
  
• Brazilian Politics Cause Market Turmoil
  
• Uneven Performance "Across the Pond"

July 2002

• State of the U.S. Economy
  
• What Indicators Does the Fed Track?
  
• When Will the Fed Move?
  
• The U.S. Dollar and the Euro

June 2002

• World Economies at a Glance
• Monetary Policy at Key Central Banks
• The U.S. Dollar Current Account Deficit
• Impact of Higher Oil Prices

May 2002

• Where Did the U.S. Government Surplus Go?
• The Elevated GDP: Is Everything Coming up Roses?
• Europe’s Rightward Shift
• Forecasting: Payden & Rygel vs. The Market

April 2002

• Is a Fed Rate Increase Imminent?
  
• Capacity Utilization Is Still Very Low
  
• Fannie Mae Is Not Enron
  
• Europe at a Crossroads

March 2002

• Synchronized global upturn has begun.
• Federal Reserve far from moving rates higher.
• Backdrop positive for U.S. dollar.
• Fannie Mae is not Enron.

February 2002

• GDP posts positive surprise
  
• Data surveys for January suggest that a recovery is imminent, if not already underway.
  
• Consumer expectations have jumped sharply since last fall.
  
• The Federal Reserve does "nothing."

January 2002

• Budget Deficits Have Reappeared on the Horizon
  
• The U.S. Economy Moves Towards Recovery?
  
• European Manufacturers Following the U.S. Path
  
• Eurozone Monetary Conditions Are Expansionary

December 2001

• Economic Weakness in the U.S. Has Become More Pronounced
  
• Capital Spending Has Fallen and Not Likely to Recover for Some Time
  
• Unlike Japan, the U.S. Economy Will Not Continue the Downward Plunge

November 2001

• Growth Around the World Has Slowed
  
• Monetary Policies Are Working to Offset the Slowdown
  
• In the U.S., Fiscal Spending Is Poised to Help the Economy

October 2001

• Economic Disruptions Due to the Terrorist Attacks Will Put Economic
• Growth in Negative Territory for the Remainder of the Year
• Monetary and Fiscal Policy Are Available and Are Being Used
• Uncertainty Is Great, and Economic Recovery Is Difficult to Discern

September 2001

• The worst of the U.S. Economic slowdown is behind us, and economic data will likely be mixed in the coming months.
• Economic activity is slowing in Europe and declining in Japan.
• The Fed lowered rates again in August and the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates later this fall.

August 2001

• The Worst of the U.S. Economic Slowdown Is Behind Us, and Economic Data Will Likely Be Mixed in the Coming Months
  
• Economic Activity Is Slowing in Europe and Declining in Japan
  
• We Believe the Fed Will Ease Again in August and That the European Central Bank Will Cut Rates Later This Fall

July 2001

• U.S. economic growth is weak but is poised to do better in the second half.
• We expect the Fed will remain focused on boosting growth.
• Economic activity is slowing in Europe and declining in Japan.

June 2001

• U.S. economic growth is weak but is poised to do better in the second half.
• The Fed remains worried about soft labor markets and curtailed capital spending; we expect 25 basis points of easing at the end of June.

April 2001

• The Fed responded to the confidence crisis by lowering rates 1.5% to 5.0%
• The Fed will continue to lower rates until economic growth approaches its long-term potential
• Consumer spending is weak, but positive
• Growth is slowing around the world; foreign central banks are easing monetary policy.